LOCAL Democratic Representative Lynn Woolsey is reporting House Democrats are "furious" with President Barack Obama. They are fuming because, in the words of San Rafael City Councilman and former Chair of the Marin Democratic Party, Greg Brockbank, the president "caved in on the issue of tax cuts for the rich before negotiations even started."

One can understand a non-Lincolnian interpretation of the president's action. If they are placed on an historical arc, the ellipse parallels 1858.

Let me explain.

In a series of debates that year, in a race against Stephen Douglas for the Illinois Senate seat, the shrewd Lincoln set a trap for the "Little Giant."

The trap was sprung two years later.

It was a classic pyrrhic victory for Douglas. He won the Senate seat but lost the presidency to Lincoln in 1860.

If my calculations are right, the same principle is at play for Barack Obama.

In 1858, Lincoln made Douglas commit to what became known as the Freeport Doctrine, so named for the town in which that particular debate was held. Douglas argued that in spite of the Dred Scott Decision, slavery could be excluded from the territories by local legislation. It won him the Illinois Senate race in 1858 but did not play well in the South.

Two years hence, he lost the election in 1860.

Today's Republicans are on a par with Douglas. They believe holding Obama and the middle class

hostage to a tax break for the rich will garner them support among their constituents now. They believe their recent shellacking of the Democrats at the polls to be a mandate. The question is how will it play in 2012.

Obama, just as Lincoln did, is conceding to the Republicans the position they have staked out on tax cuts for the wealthy now. The legislation will most likely ultimately gain passage, although there is a present revolt by House Democrats.

My historic take is it will hurt the GOP two years hence because the majority of middle- class Americans will hold Republicans accountable for adding to the deficit at their expense and that of the nation.

This could all be historical speculation, but it is worth noting that Obama is a student of history. It could be through the past he sees the future more clearly than the rest of us.

Rather than fight with the Republicans, let them have their way on what they perceive they need to deliver to their base.

It may be viewed differently in 2012.

Lincoln was an Illinois lawyer -- as is Obama. Lincoln had keen political instincts and analytical skills. It is said he argued more than 300 cases before the Illinois Supreme Court, and he conceded every point -- save that upon which the case turned.

Of course, you have to be wise enough to perceive what the key issue is. Lincoln was. I believe Obama is just that skilled.

If I am right, the House and the Senate will pass the Republican tax bill, extending tax cuts for the wealthiest 1 percent. It will add to the deficit. The Republicans will be held accountable, losing the White House and the Congress in 2012.

Chances are nobody but I will remember this column in two years. Either way, I'm safe.

Noah Griffin of Tiburon is a public affairs consultant and a former community member of the IJ's editorial board.